Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) delivered a Q3 that worked on two levels. The headline beat was real: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA jumped more than 50% year over year to $2.38 billion, revenue hit $6.35 billion (about 5% above the $6.03 billion estimate), and management used the momentum to lift 2026 guidance while offering a first look at 2027 that implies another leg of growth.
The numbers themselves are clean enough. GAAP net income of $1.14 billion included $559 million in unrealized hedge gains, so the non-GAAP metric is what matters. The $2.38 billion in Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA compares with $1.58 billion a year ago, driven by higher realized energy and capacity prices, three months from the Lotus acquisition, and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1. Retail segment EBITDA more than doubled to $98 million from $37 million, though it remains the smallest contributor. Texas segment EBITDA rose to $1.23 billion from $784 million; East segment EBITDA hit $979 million versus $719 million.
The forward guidance matters more. Vistra narrowed its 2026 Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA range to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, raising the midpoint by roughly $150 million from the prior $7.0 billion to $7.5 billion band. Modest, not a blowout. The 2027 initiation is more telling: $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion for Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA and $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion for Ongoing Ops Adjusted FCFbG. The 2027 midpoint of $8.1 billion implies roughly 11% growth from the 2026 midpoint of $7.3 billion. Not a step-change, but a credible trajectory built on a fleet that just delivered 95% commercial availability during record summer demand in both ERCOT and PJM.
That 2027 guidance embeds the Cogentrix acquisition, which closed in October. The 5.5 GW of natural gas generation adds scale and geographic diversification, but the price was real. Vistra redeemed all $1 billion of Series A Preferred Stock, paid approximately $2.2 billion in cash for Cogentrix, borrowed the full capacity under its accounts receivable financing facilities, and repaid about $1.7 billion of debt assumed in the deal. Pro forma liquidity dropped to roughly $5.4 billion from $8.9 billion at quarter end. Still ample. But the drawdown makes the 2027 free cash flow guidance more important than the EBITDA figure.
The buyback program got another $1.5 billion authorization, bringing total remaining authorization to about $2.5 billion expected through 2028. Vistra has cut share count by roughly 30% since November 2021, executing about $6.7 billion in repurchases. Aggressive for a company that just levered up for an acquisition. The 2027 FCFbG range of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion provides cover. At the midpoint, $4.7 billion in free cash flow before growth would support both debt reduction and continued buybacks.
The 2027 guidance also signals management's view of power markets. Vistra has hedged approximately 98% of expected generation volumes for 2027, which means the $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion range is not a bet on higher prices. It is a bet on operational execution, cost discipline, and the contribution from Cogentrix and new solar assets. The 405 MW Pulaski Solar facility in Illinois (under a PPA with Microsoft) and the 100 MW Deer Creek facility in California are now operational. A 20-year, 207 MW PPA with New Era Energy and Digital at the Odessa gas plant in Texas adds contracted revenue visibility.
The 2026 guidance raise was modest. The 2027 initiation is what gives investors a baseline to measure whether Vistra can convert its fleet investments and acquisition into sustained free cash flow growth. The next two quarters will show whether the Cogentrix integration and new solar ramp deliver on the trajectory management has laid out.