Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) posted record third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year and slightly ahead of the $1.44 billion consensus. The headline flatters the underlying mix.
Transaction-based revenue rose 19% to $867 million. Almost all of that came from two sources. Event contracts surged over 6x to $173 million. Options jumped 31% to $399 million. Meanwhile crypto revenue collapsed 55% to $120 million. The revenue base is shifting faster than the top line suggests.
The beat on the bottom line was thinner. Adjusted EPS of $0.60 came in a penny ahead of estimates but fell 3% year over year. GAAP diluted EPS dropped 16% to $0.51, dragged by $67 million of unrealized losses from the mark-to-market of Robinhood Ventures Fund I. That $0.07 per share hit is worth flagging: the company introduced Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted EPS this quarter specifically to exclude such non-operating items. The new metrics tell a cleaner story. But the gap between GAAP and adjusted profitability is widening. Investors should watch whether the ventures portfolio keeps generating volatility.
The more interesting number sits in the deposit base. Net Deposits hit $15.7 billion in Q3, a 17% annualized growth rate. October has already topped $13 billion month-to-date, including $6 billion from the Dell family's contribution to Trump Accounts. That is a massive acceleration. It is also a concentration risk.
The Trump Account program, which now covers nearly 70 million children through automatic enrollment, is a government-driven inflow that Robinhood does not control. The $6 billion Dell contribution is a one-time event. The question is whether organic deposit growth can sustain this pace once the policy-driven inflows normalize.
Robinhood Gold subscribers reached a record 5.2 million, up 34% year over year, with adoption at roughly 40% among new customers. That is the metric that matters most for recurring revenue. Gold subscription fees feed directly into other revenues, which rose 61% to $142 million, and they provide a stable base against the volatility of trading volumes. The company also crossed a notable threshold: Rothera, its prediction markets joint venture with Susquehanna, surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue in its first full quarter. Robinhood now has 14 business lines at that scale.
Management lowered the top end of 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC guidance by $25 million to $2.675–$2.75 billion, citing efficiency gains. That is a modest trim, but it signals cost discipline even as the company invests in new products and geographic expansion. The expense outlook excludes provision for credit losses, which jumped 173% year over year to $71 million as the credit card book grows. That line item is becoming a real earnings drag, and it is not going away.
The strategic picture is deliberate diversification away from crypto dependence. Event contracts, options, and equities now carry the transaction revenue load. The prediction markets hub is scaling fast: 16.4 billion event contracts traded in Q3, up over 7x year over year. Robinhood Chain, in its first quarter on Mainnet, generated over $80 billion in DEX volume and over $50 million in chain fees. These are early innings, but they point to a platform that is no longer just a brokerage.
What to watch next: whether October's deposit surge is durable or a policy artifact, how the credit card book's provision costs trend relative to revenue, and whether the ventures portfolio stops throwing off large unrealized swings. The guidance trim is a small positive. The real test is whether Robinhood can keep growing transaction revenue without relying on a single product line. This quarter suggests it can. The mix shift is still in motion.