Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.530B to $8.534B, implying 91% growth, after third-quarter revenue rose 96% year over year to $2.313B against a consensus estimate of $2.177B. The company also initiated Q4 guidance of $2.649B to $2.653B, a range that brackets the sequential step-up implied by the full-year figure and leaves little room for a December shortfall.
The guide change is the substance of this release. Full-year revenue guidance moved up to a range whose midpoint sits roughly 6% above the $2.177B quarterly consensus annualized, and the U.S. commercial line was raised to "in excess of $3.559B," a floor rather than a range, representing at least 143% growth. Adjusted income from operations guidance rose to $5.245B to $5.249B, and adjusted free cash flow guidance to $4.8B to $5.0B. The free cash flow range is the one soft spot: a $200M spread on a $4.9B midpoint is wide by the standards of the other metrics, which are guided to within $4M. Management is either less certain about collections timing or leaving itself room on capital expenditures. Neither is alarming at this scale, but the asymmetry is worth flagging.
Management cites "Sovereign AI" as the demand driver, a framing Karp has been building for several quarters. The operating evidence is in the deal counts: 212 contracts of at least $1M, 107 of at least $5M, and 64 of at least $10M, for total contract value of $2.918B. That TCV figure grew only 6% year over year, a striking deceleration next to 96% revenue growth. U.S. commercial TCV of $1.463B grew 11%. Read those two numbers against the income statement and a coherent picture emerges: Palantir is converting a large backlog of previously signed contracts into revenue far faster than it is signing new ones. U.S. commercial remaining deal value of $6.517B, up 79% year over year but only 4% sequentially, supports that reading. The revenue acceleration is real, but it is being pulled from an existing book, and the sequential RDV growth of 4% is the number to watch next quarter. If bookings do not reaccelerate, the 2027 growth rate has a ceiling that the current quarter does not reveal.
The segment mix shift is the structural change. U.S. commercial revenue reached $984M, up 148% year over year and 29% sequentially, overtaking U.S. government revenue of $953M for the first time. U.S. government still grew 96% year over year and 18% sequentially, so this is not a case of one segment stalling while the other runs. Both are compounding at rates that would be headline numbers on their own. The commercial line crossing government matters because commercial contracts carry different renewal dynamics and, in aggregate, a customer base that is not budget-cycle dependent. It also means the raised U.S. commercial floor of $3.559B is the guidance line investors should weight most heavily; it is the one management chose to express as a minimum rather than a range.
Margins did the work that growth alone would not. GAAP operating income of $1.085B represented a 47% margin, up from 33% a year ago on the same basis. Adjusted operating income of $1.427B was a 62% margin against 51% prior year, an 1,100bp expansion. The adjusted figure excludes $318.9M of stock-based compensation, which rose 85% year over year and now equals 13.8% of revenue. That is the cost buried in the adjusted numbers: compensation expense is growing almost as fast as revenue, and the gap between GAAP and adjusted operating income widened to $342M from $207M a year ago. The margin story is genuine on a GAAP basis, which is the stronger claim, but the adjusted margin flatters a business still paying heavily in equity.
Cash generation matched the earnings. Operating cash flow of $1.205B was a 52% margin, and adjusted free cash flow of $1.216B a 53% margin. The balance sheet holds $10.4B in cash, equivalents, and U.S. Treasuries, against total liabilities of $2.068B. Accounts receivable jumped to $1.883B from $1.042B at year-end, growing faster than the nine-month revenue base, which is consistent with the sequential revenue ramp but is the line item that would show stress first if collections slipped. Nothing in the cash flow statement suggests that yet: nine-month operating cash flow of $3.320B against net income of $3.077B means earnings are converting to cash at better than 100%.
The forward read is straightforward. Q4 guidance of $2.649B to $2.653B implies roughly 14.5% sequential growth from Q3, a step down from the 20% just delivered. Management is guiding to deceleration, not acceleration, even while raising the year. That is the conservative choice given the bookings trend, and it sets up a low bar for the fourth quarter. Watch two things: whether U.S. commercial RDV reaccelerates from 4% sequential growth, and whether the free cash flow range narrows on the next print. The revenue guide is doing its job. The bookings line is the one that will determine whether 91% growth is a peak or a waypoint.